Selection of criteria for assessing the effectiveness of vibration diagnostics of rolling stock units at the current stage of digitalisation for the harmonisation of regulatory documents

Introduction. The article considers the issues of improving the operation of equipment for vibration diagnostics of rotary mechanical units of rolling stock, and determining objective criteria for assessing the efficiency of the diagnostic process. Industry regulatory documents have significant shortcomings in terms of determining the efficiency indicators of diagnostic equipment. Examples of calculating the “certainty” indicator, performed using different methods, showed that the results of calculating this indicator depend on the sample size of the diagnosed units. The purpose of the article is to analyse existing methods for assessing the quality of operation of vibration diagnostic equipment and to develop an additional criterion for assessing quality based on the likelihood function.
Materials and methods. The samples of diagnostic results of axle boxes of wheel pairs of wagons (selected as an example) are the source material for the discussed problem. The employed methods relate to the sections of mathematical statistics and probability theory. A mathematical method for estimating parameters based on the calculation of the likelihood function is analysed. An example of calculating the likelihood function on simulated data is given.
Results. The result of the work performed is a methodology that allows to determine the certainty limit of diagnostic results of a given degree of probability (“reliability”).
Discussion and conclusion. The authors propose to introduce interval estimates of the “certainty” parameter. It is proposed to use three intervals with specific boundary values. Along with the assessment of the certainty (confirmability) of diagnostic results the authors propose to assess the quality and efficiency of operation of vibration diagnostic equipment by calculating the likelihood function. It is noted that the results of the study could be used in various industries.

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