Appraisal of the Population Factor Influence on the Passenger Traffic Volume

Abstract

The objective of the present work is investigation of the effect exerted by the number of inhabitants on the passenger flow value in the modern context. The conducted analysis based on the population data of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the years 2006 and 2012, published by the Federal State Statistics Service, and passenger flow data (numbers of passenger departures from stations situated at the territories of the RF constituents for the same years) supplied by the automated database of the MIS Express-3 system. There was analyzed compatibility between the passenger flow variation values and corresponding variations of the RF population as a whole. Also discussed were population dynamics and dynamics of passenger departures by individual federal districts. For the purpose of such analysis there were introduced four categories reflecting growth and recession trends of the indicators under discussion: 1. Growth of passenger flow, growth of population 2. Growth of passenger flow, reduction in population 3. Reduction in passenger flow, growth of population 4. Reduction in passenger flow, reduction in population. By about 60 % the respective sample was assigned to the last category. The investigation under discussion demonstrated that in the present context there is no universal trend linking variations of population and passenger flow indices. One must admit that number of inhabitants does not influence passenger flow level.