Analysis of macroeconomic factors influencing on local passenger traffic volume

Abstract

The article is devoted to study issues of influence of macroeconomic factors on passenger traffic volume in local communication. This task is actual to form a model of long-term forecast for local passenger traffic volume. This forecast is based on statistics of passenger traffic and external factors (they influence and form this statistics). The article gives reasons of choice of local service as an object of this research. The author took information about railway transport from ACS Express-3 and information about macroeconomic factors from Federal State Statistics Service to make an economical and statistical analysis for this article. By means of expert evaluation method macroeconomic factors were selected to choose which of them make influence to passenger traffic volume. They were divided into five groups. They are: population factors, common welfare factors, competitive environment factors, economic and production development of region. Methods of paired and multiple correlation analysis were used to find out power of influence between passenger traffic volume and macroeconomic factors. Open statistic sources publish information about macroeconomic factors by subjects of RF. Railway statistics is formed by railway objects. This is why author had to make recalculation of macroeconomic factors by shares in passenger traffic volume to make input dates comparable. Influencing of different factors to passenger traffic volume can differ among railways. Therefore calculations and choice of influence factors/combinations/groups of factors were made to each railway individually. Algorithm and results of calculations is given in the article. Factors/combinations/groups of factors with maximal influence to local passenger service were chosen.